Supply and demand imbalance, domestic pork prices will continue to rise

After more than a month's stabilization, domestic pork prices began to rise slightly from late October. According to a number of industry insiders, it is conservatively predicted that the price of pork will continue to rise slightly within the next three to four months. Before and after the two quarters, pork prices will exceed 23 yuan/kg.

The analysis of pork prices by industry insiders is based on data from some relevant hog surveys recently released by the Ministry of Agriculture. The data released by the Animal Husbandry Division of the Ministry of Agriculture in mid-October showed that the number of live pigs in September was 454.5 million, of which 47 million were capable of sow breeding. Both data were higher than the equilibrium level of demand and supply. According to the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, although the supply of live pigs exceeds supply, the price of pork has risen recently. According to the data recently released by the National Development and Reform Commission, the average retail price of lean meat for 36 large and medium-sized city markets was 12.38 yuan per 500 grams in October, which was 0.57% higher than that in September. The data released by the Ministry of Agriculture also showed that at the end of October, the national The average price of live pigs was 12.94 yuan/kg, and the average price of pork was 20.55 yuan/kg, both of which were in a rising trend.

Regarding the continuous rise in the price of pork in the recent period, an official of the Ministry of Agriculture, who declined to be named, analyzed that the main reason was due to the increase in feed prices. Many non-officials in the industry analyzed that another major reason for the continuous rise in pork prices was due to the decline in the number of live pigs in the country.

Analysts said that for a long time, as the domestic pig farmers are too scattered, the actual amount of pigs held by the government is rather ambiguous. Analysts believe that as pig prices continued to decline in the first half of this year and the enthusiasm of farmers was reduced, coupled with the occurrence of live-dose foot-and-mouth disease in many domestic provinces, it is very likely that there will be a significant reduction in the number of domestic live pigs, and there will be an imbalance between supply and demand.

According to feedback from reporters from a number of farmers in Shandong, Jilin, and Sichuan, since the second half of the year, the number of live pigs in live pig farms has been declining from month to month, and in some places even piglets have been sold. With the increase in feed prices, it is expected that the price of pork will exceed 23 yuan/kg by the end of the year, which is basically consistent with the answer provided by the aforementioned non-official analysts.

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