Crushing profits rise, soybean market warms up

After the holiday season, the soybean market in China was slightly followed by the continuous rise in the price of Soybean Futures and the impact of recent highs.

On February 9, Harbin Soybean Price was 3,900 yuan/ton, which was flatter than that before the holiday; Shenyang soybean price was 3,960 yuan/ton, which was flat compared with the pre-holiday period; imported soybeans, Dalian Port, was quoted at 4,240 yuan/ton, which was flatter than before the holiday. Tianjin Port Quotation of 4240 yuan / ton, unchanged from before the holiday, Qingdao Port offer 4,360 yuan / ton, unchanged from the holiday. Zhangjiagang offer 4280 yuan / ton, unchanged from the holiday. The executive meeting of the State Council held yesterday in China decided to issue ten measures in the near future to further increase support for food production. Since last October, the drought in the north of our country has become increasingly apparent. The affected area of ​​wheat production areas has reached 80%. The regulation of agricultural products has become a very important and urgent task in the new year. This shows even more that the trend of agricultural products this year will be even more intense.

On February 10, the price of the oil plant rose by an average of RMB 20/t on the 9th, but the transaction remained thin. At present, there are still many oil plants in suspension, lack of acquisition quotes.

It can be seen that the overall performance of the soybean spot market is more cautious and stable, continuing the pre-holiday market atmosphere.

However, as the prices of downstream crude oil prices have continued to increase in the recent period, crushing profits have apparently rebounded, and domestic soybean crush margins have remained at around 250 yuan/ton.

As for imported soybeans, with the exception of Dalian, which is still in a state of deficit, crushing profits in other regions have already risen to RMB100/ton. The rebound in crush profits will significantly boost soybean demand.

Fundamentally, the overall environment of the recent international soybean market is no longer full of bullish factors as at the end of 2010. Whether it is from the much-watched South American weather or the strong US soybean exports or China’s huge import demand, it has fallen into a bullish situation. Vacuum period. Recently, the weather conditions in South America, especially in Brazil, are very good, which is conducive to the development of crops, grains, and ripening, and has also led analysts to increase their production in Brazil. In Argentina, despite the fact that soybean production in the region may not be significantly raised due to planting issues, good rains have kept output stable for a month, and the speculation of a decline in Argentina’s output has been obtained at the price of international soybean futures. reaction.

On the whole, the fundamentals of the international market are centered on a faint atmosphere of overhang; the domestic spot market has remained light, but the rebound in squeezed profits will help stimulate the market outlook.

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