The dairy industry is finishing at the end of the month, and 30% of the milk enterprises at normal temperature may be eliminated.

According to the latest regulations of the AQSIQ, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, all enterprises that have obtained dairy products and infant formula milk powder production licenses must apply for production licenses before the end of the year. The latest deadline for re-examination and certification is 3 The end of the month.

Analysts said that after the recertification upgrade, it is estimated that about 30% of the dairy companies in China will be cleared out. It is reported that most of the companies that have been eliminated are enterprises that produce room temperature milk, and this will help the leading companies such as Mengniu and Yili, which operate the normal temperature milk, to further expand the market.

Substantial improvement in access thresholds According to the new regulations, dairy product manufacturers must be equipped with appropriate testing equipment and carry out self-inspection on 64 indicators such as melamine and food additives. According to industry sources, the threshold for this review has been greatly improved, and the degree of severity is beyond imagination. The dairy industry is undergoing an unprecedented reshuffle.

“Enterprises need to purchase related equipment. Small businesses invest 4 million, while large companies invest tens of millions. This will undoubtedly become an insurmountable threshold for capital-intensive dairy companies, and a large number of companies will be eliminated.” Zhang Weiyin, secretary general of the Dairy Association, told reporters.

According to Zhang Weiyin, there are currently 138 major dairy companies in Heilongjiang, 108 of which are applying for production licenses. It is estimated that about 84 companies will pass the review. Based on this calculation, more than one-third of dairy companies in Heilongjiang will be eliminated after this round of review.

In fact, it is not only Heilongjiang, a major dairy province, but also dairy companies in other provinces and regions. According to the results of the preliminary review notified by various local authorities, 24 of the 78 dairy enterprises in Shaanxi have been cleared; only 12 of the 33 dairy enterprises in Ningxia can pass at present; half of the companies in Beijing so far have not yet obtained the “entry permit”.

Yang Gang, deputy director of the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, said earlier that by the end of March, when the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine announced the results of the review, it is estimated that one-third of the country's small-scale enterprises will be forced to close.

However, as the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine re-examined the dairy production license from March 1 of the original plan until the end of March, some experts predict that the number of companies that will eventually be eliminated may be less than previously expected. CIC Securities food industry analysts told this reporter that eventually there will be about 20% to 30% of the dairy companies eliminated.

The leading enterprise market is expected to expand the scrutiny of the entire dairy industry. Experts said that the larger affected companies are mainly small-scale enterprises that produce room-temperature milk and have little impact on large companies, especially related listed companies. It is expected that the vacated market share of about 10% of the companies that are eliminated will be quickly occupied by leading enterprises. From this perspective, it is better for large enterprises.

"Because the companies that are eliminated are those who do normal milk, they will benefit leading companies such as Yili and Mengniu, which are the main suppliers of normal temperature milk," said CIC Securities analyst.

Members of the Mengniu Group Securities Affairs Department also told this newspaper yesterday that Mengniu was the first batch of companies in Inner Mongolia to obtain a permit. The reorganization will also have a positive impact on Mengniu.

It is understood that since 2005, Mengniu and Yili have occupied nearly 60% of the market share of liquid milk, but the two dairy giants, which are extremely "sensitive" to the market, have already started to snare and seize the market.

Mengniu has successively invested in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia Yinchuan, Hebei, Jiangsu and other places, and also acquired a 51% stake in Junlebao, the largest yoghurt base in North China, for 470 million yuan. In addition, Yili has successively built 1200 tons, 780 tons and 800 tons of high temperature sterilized milk products in Hebei, Ningxia and Guangdong respectively.

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