On June 27th, the 2011 China Summer Cereals, Oils, and Feedstuffs Market Analysis and Trade Fair was held in Wuhan. Analysts believe that the degree of domestic marketization of wheat will further increase this year, and the wheat market will continue to fluctuate as the main trend. There is no possibility of ups and downs. The tight supply and demand pattern of corn will persist for a long time. This year is the first year of turning point; this year it is also privately-owned rapeseed. The toughest year for seed acquisition processing companies,
"According to our latest forecast, China's oil production in 2011/2012 will reach 23.5 million tons, which will set a record high, among which rapeseed production will decline, and peanut and sunflower seed production will increase. Total production of seven oilseeds (including oil) will increase slightly. Among them, the increase in cottonseed production, the decline in soybean production, and the inconsistency in domestic oilseed supply continue to exist,†said Zhang Liwei, director of the Forecasting Division of the National Grain and Oil Information Center.
Looking at the domestic rapeseed price trend in 2011/2012, Zhang Liwei analyzed: The output of rapeseed dropped, the import volume was difficult to increase substantially, and the annual new supply decreased. In the case of a significant increase in rapeseed crushing capacity, the supply shortage will be even more conspicuous; companies buying it will lead to a high price for this year's purchase, and crushing losses by oil mills will constrain the enthusiasm of corporate acquisitions, and later rapeseed prices will be difficult to continue. Rising; temporary support policy, the purchase price is also difficult to drop sharply, is expected to maintain the oscillation trend of rapeseed purchase prices this year, the shock range concentrated in 4400 ~ 5,000 yuan / ton.
Yu Guoping, general manager of China Rapeseed Mesh, the organizer of the conference, believed that this year was the most difficult year for private rapeseed seed acquisition and processing companies. On the one hand, the state cancelled the financial subsidies for rapeseed purchases, and on the other hand, it limited the loan for rapeseed purchase funds. The market price of edible oil is limited. With such a large policy background, the rapeseed market is not optimistic. In the later period, there may be difficulties in selling rapeseed rapeseeds, oil plant rapeseed purchases to fight “white barsâ€, and merchants hoarding for sale or losses. The price of rapeseed in the latter period is easy to fall or rise on the basis of the current price. It is expected that the price range of rapeseed from late June to early July will be between RMB 4,600 and RMB 4,800/ton, and it is not precluded from falling below the RMB 4,600/ton mark.
Regarding the trend of wheat market, analyst Shen Hongyuan of Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market's agricultural products (15.88, -0.10, -0.63%) believes that the current Chen Wheat market is stable and the consumption of flour is sluggish. On the one hand, the country implements targeted sales, while on the other The constant supply of stored wheat also played a stabilizing role. This year, the price of new wheat is slightly higher, and the opening price is higher than the price level of the city. It is lower than the market price of 0.02 to 0.04 yuan/kg of wheat, and the moisture content is high. Shen Hongyuan predicts that this year's high-quality wheat market performed better than ordinary wheat, and high quality, high prices have been significantly reflected.
According to Li Qiang, chief analyst of Shanghai Huiyi Consulting Co., Ltd., the tight supply and demand pattern of corn in China will persist for a long time. This year is the first year of turning point.
"According to our latest forecast, China's oil production in 2011/2012 will reach 23.5 million tons, which will set a record high, among which rapeseed production will decline, and peanut and sunflower seed production will increase. Total production of seven oilseeds (including oil) will increase slightly. Among them, the increase in cottonseed production, the decline in soybean production, and the inconsistency in domestic oilseed supply continue to exist,†said Zhang Liwei, director of the Forecasting Division of the National Grain and Oil Information Center.
Looking at the domestic rapeseed price trend in 2011/2012, Zhang Liwei analyzed: The output of rapeseed dropped, the import volume was difficult to increase substantially, and the annual new supply decreased. In the case of a significant increase in rapeseed crushing capacity, the supply shortage will be even more conspicuous; companies buying it will lead to a high price for this year's purchase, and crushing losses by oil mills will constrain the enthusiasm of corporate acquisitions, and later rapeseed prices will be difficult to continue. Rising; temporary support policy, the purchase price is also difficult to drop sharply, is expected to maintain the oscillation trend of rapeseed purchase prices this year, the shock range concentrated in 4400 ~ 5,000 yuan / ton.
Yu Guoping, general manager of China Rapeseed Mesh, the organizer of the conference, believed that this year was the most difficult year for private rapeseed seed acquisition and processing companies. On the one hand, the state cancelled the financial subsidies for rapeseed purchases, and on the other hand, it limited the loan for rapeseed purchase funds. The market price of edible oil is limited. With such a large policy background, the rapeseed market is not optimistic. In the later period, there may be difficulties in selling rapeseed rapeseeds, oil plant rapeseed purchases to fight “white barsâ€, and merchants hoarding for sale or losses. The price of rapeseed in the latter period is easy to fall or rise on the basis of the current price. It is expected that the price range of rapeseed from late June to early July will be between RMB 4,600 and RMB 4,800/ton, and it is not precluded from falling below the RMB 4,600/ton mark.
Regarding the trend of wheat market, analyst Shen Hongyuan of Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market's agricultural products (15.88, -0.10, -0.63%) believes that the current Chen Wheat market is stable and the consumption of flour is sluggish. On the one hand, the country implements targeted sales, while on the other The constant supply of stored wheat also played a stabilizing role. This year, the price of new wheat is slightly higher, and the opening price is higher than the price level of the city. It is lower than the market price of 0.02 to 0.04 yuan/kg of wheat, and the moisture content is high. Shen Hongyuan predicts that this year's high-quality wheat market performed better than ordinary wheat, and high quality, high prices have been significantly reflected.
According to Li Qiang, chief analyst of Shanghai Huiyi Consulting Co., Ltd., the tight supply and demand pattern of corn in China will persist for a long time. This year is the first year of turning point.
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